Investec Group (INVP) Trading Update summary

Financial performance and outlook

• Pre-provision adjusted operating profit for 1H2025 expected between £520m and £550m, up 6.7% to 12.9% from prior period, with revenue growth supported by balance sheet expansion, growth initiatives, and higher average rates.

• Adjusted EPS forecasted at 37.2p–40.2p, ranging from 4% below to 4% above 1H2024; headline EPS at 35.3p–38.2p, 1.4% below to 3.5% above prior period.

• Net core loans increased by 6.1% annualized to £31.7bn, driven by private client and corporate lending; customer deposits remained flat at £39.5bn.

• Southern Africa FUM up 10.7% to £23.2bn; Rathbones FUM at £108.9bn as of June 2024.

• Cost-to-income ratio expected below 53.3%, with credit loss ratio at the upper end of the through-the-cycle range; overall credit quality remains strong.

Capital, returns, and guidance

• Group ROE expected between 13%-14%, within the upgraded medium-term target range of 13%-17%; ROTE at 15.5%-16.5%.

• Maintained strong capital and liquidity levels, supporting clients and growth opportunities.

• Trading remains in line with previously given FY2025 guidance; interim results scheduled for 21 November 2024.

• Disposal of Assupol by Bud Group Holdings to Sanlam is now unconditional, facilitating Investec's exit from Bud Group Holdings.

Segmental and regional performance

• Southern Africa adjusted operating profit to be at least 15% higher in Rands; Specialist Bank profit at least 11% higher, with credit loss ratio below midpoint of 15–35bps.

• UK business, including Rathbones, adjusted operating profit to be 5–11% lower; Specialist Bank profit flat to 9% lower, with credit loss ratio above 50–60bps due to specific impairments.