Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Consolidated revenue grew 49% year over year to KZT 822B, with net income up 14% to KZT 254B, driven by strong Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech growth; excluding Türkiye, revenue rose 21% and net income 16%.

• Monthly transactions per active consumer increased 18% YoY to 75, with engagement and user base metrics at record highs.

• International expansion advanced with a $650M Eurobond issuance and the acquisition of 65.41% of Hepsiburada in Türkiye, plus an agreement to acquire Rabobank A.Ş.

• Temporary headwinds included new smartphone import regulations in Kazakhstan and higher macro provisioning due to increased interest rates.

• The company continues to focus on scaling eGrocery, expanding into new cities, and investing in deposit products to drive future growth.

Financial highlights

• Consolidated revenue reached KZT 822B (+49% YoY); net income KZT 254B (+14% YoY); excluding Türkiye, revenue was KZT 685B (+21% YoY) and net income KZT 260B (+16% YoY).

• Payments revenue grew 16% YoY, Marketplace revenue 33% YoY, and Fintech revenue 18% YoY.

• Payments TPV up 23% YoY to KZT 9.7T; Marketplace GMV up 20% YoY to KZT 1.5T; Fintech TFV up 17% YoY to KZT 2.6T.

• Hepsiburada (Türkiye) revenue fell 8% YoY and net income dropped 97% YoY due to boycotts and higher provisioning.

• Segment net income: Payments +21% YoY, Marketplace +19% YoY, Fintech +8% YoY.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance (excluding Türkiye): GMV growth 15–20%, TPV and TFV growth 15–20%, net income growth revised to ~15% YoY due to higher deposit costs and new tax on government securities.

• TPV outlook unchanged; TFV growth expected at the lower end of the range.

• Anticipates a 10% tax on investment revenue and higher National Bank reserve requirements, with a combined estimated 200 basis point impact on net income.

• Interest rates expected to remain high in the near term, but could become a tailwind if they normalize.

• Türkiye seen as a significant medium-term opportunity.