Lam Research (LRCX) Cantor Fitzgerald Global Technology Conference summary

Market and industry outlook

• WFE is expected to grow from $95B in 2024 to $100B in 2025, with upgrades in NAND and strong performance in etch and deposition segments.

• NAND upgrades are driving higher share of spend, with a transition to molybdenum tools beginning next year.

• Foundry and logic investments, especially in Gate-All-Around and advanced packaging, are significant growth drivers.

• DRAM spending remains strong outside China, with high bandwidth memory and technology transitions underway.

• China revenue is down due to new regulations, impacting results by about $700M, with local competitors gaining share.

Product and technology innovation

• Two major new products, Akara (conductor etch) and Altus Halo (molybdenum ALD), are expected to drive significant incremental revenue.

• Akara is a complete redesign with advanced equipment intelligence, receiving strong customer feedback and targeting multiple markets.

• Altus Halo is projected to generate $2B in new revenue over several years, marking a major industry shift in metalization.

• Dry photoresist is gaining momentum, with a $1.5B opportunity over five years, initially focused on DRAM.

• Advanced packaging and 3D architecture inflections are creating multi-billion dollar opportunities in etch and deposition.

Financial model and growth strategy

• WFE is projected to grow mid-high single digits, with SAM share rising from low 30% to mid-high 30s by 2028.

• Gross margin target is 50%, supported by Asia factory expansion and supply chain localization.

• Operating margin is expected to reach 34-35%, with digital transformation contributing 150 basis points over several years.

• CSBG is forecasted to grow 50% from 2024 to 2028, driven by a growing installed base and innovation in service delivery.

• At least 85% of free cash flow will be returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, maintaining a strong capital return policy.