Lam Research (LRCX) Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference summary

Key strategic messages

• Confident in outperforming WFE growth as vertical scaling drives increased deposition and etch intensity across NAND, DRAM, and Foundry Logic.

• Introduced two significant new tools to capture higher share during technology inflections, including the Akaris conductor etch platform.

• CSBG business is increasingly important for growth, profitability, and stability due to its resilience to WFE cycles.

• Growing installed base enables more revenue capture through upgrades and services.

Market outlook and financial model

• WFE expected to grow at a mid-high single digit CAGR through 2028, with Lam's addressable market rising from low 30% to mid-high 30% of WFE.

• NAND, DRAM, and Foundry/Logic all projected to grow, with Foundry/Logic doubling and Lam targeting 50% share of incremental WFE growth.

• 2024-2025 growth driven by NAND conversion spending, DRAM node transitions, and strong leading-edge Foundry/Logic investments.

NAND market and technology

• $40 billion in NAND upgrade spending expected over several years to migrate to higher layer counts and advanced technologies.

• Lam's SAM is over two-thirds of WFE spent on upgrades, with a large capture rate.

• Cryo 3.0 etch process and upgradability of tools provide competitive edge.

• Hybrid bonding and advanced packaging trends create new tool opportunities.