LiveWire Group (LVWR) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 performance was significantly impacted by cyclical headwinds, high interest rates, and weakened consumer confidence, resulting in a 7% global retail sales decline for the year and a 15% decline in Q4.

• Strategic initiatives included cost reductions, operational consolidation, and a focus on core, profitable product segments and inventory management to maintain profitability and set up for future growth.

• The company gained 3.5% market share in the US touring segment, reaching nearly 75%, and was the only manufacturer to gain meaningful share in this segment.

• Cost productivity initiatives delivered $257 million in savings since inception, with operating cash flow exceeding $1 billion in 2024, up nearly 40% year-over-year.

• Cash burn expected to decrease by 40% or more in 2025.

Financial highlights

• Q4 consolidated revenue declined 35% year-over-year, with HDMC revenue down 47% and HDFS revenue up 4%.

• Full-year 2024 consolidated revenue was $5.2 billion, down 11% from 2023; operating income was $417 million, down 47%.

• Full-year consolidated revenue for LiveWire declined 30% year-over-year to $26.6M; Q4 revenue down 29% to $10.8M.

• Net loss for LiveWire in 2024 was $93.9M, a 14% improvement from $109.6M in 2023; Q4 net loss was $22.8M, down from $33.1M.

• Operating cash flow for 2024 was $1.1 billion, up from $755 million in 2023.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance expects flat retail sales, with positive performance skewed to the second half of the year.

• Wholesale units expected to be flat to down 5%, with global inventory levels targeted to decrease by over 10%.

• HDMC operating income margin expected between 7% and 8%; EPS expected to be flat to down 5% from 2024.

• HDFS operating income forecasted to decline 10%-15% due to higher borrowing costs and lower asset levels.

• LiveWire unit sales projected at 1,000-1,500 with an operating loss of $70-80 million and cash burn projected to decrease by at least 40% in 2025.