Methanex (MX) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 Adjusted EBITDA was $543 million; net income attributable to shareholders was $265 million, supported by persistent industry supply losses and strong North American operations.

• Operating cash flow reached $646 million; debt reduction remains the priority, and New Zealand facilities are expected to idle indefinitely in Q1 2027.

Financial highlights

• Revenue was $1.388 billion, versus $1.395 billion in Q2 2026 and $927 million in Q3 2025.

• Adjusted EBITDA was $543 million, down from $577 million in Q2 and up from $191 million in Q3 2025; it included a $10 million New Zealand restructuring accrual.

• Adjusted net income was $284 million versus $300 million in Q2; net income was $265 million, compared with $198 million in Q2 and a $7 million loss in Q3 2025.

• Operating cash flow was $646 million and Adjusted free cash flow was $520 million, versus $439 million and $298 million, respectively, in Q2 2026.

• Quarter-end cash was $912 million; average realized price was $510 per tonne and total methanol sales volume was 2.595 million tonnes.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 production is expected to be ~9.0 million tonnes of methanol and 0.3 million tonnes of ammonia, subject to gas availability, turnarounds, outages and other events.

• October-November average realized price is expected at $525-$550 per tonne; if current pricing holds through December and produced-methanol sales match Q3, Q4 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to exceed Q3.

• Chile production is likely to be ~1.4 million tonnes in 2027; 2027 guidance is expected in the coming quarter.

• 2027 capital expenditure is expected to be above the usual ~$150 million level, but not significantly, with two to three turnarounds planned.