Methanex (MX) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 net income was $33 million ($0.50 diluted EPS) and Adjusted EBITDA was $148 million; methanol prices and sales of produced methanol increased QoQ.

• FY2023 net income was $174 million, Adjusted EBITDA $622 million and Adjusted net income $153 million, below FY2022 results of $354 million, $932 million and $343 million, respectively.

Financial highlights

• Q4 revenue was $922 million vs. $823 million in Q3; FY2023 revenue was $3.723 billion vs. $4.311 billion in FY2022.

• Q4 operating cash flow was $195 million vs. $106 million in Q3; FY2023 operating cash flow was $660 million vs. $987 million in FY2022.

• Q4 sales volume was 2.862 million tonnes vs. 2.720 million tonnes in Q3; produced-methanol sales rose to 1.712 million tonnes from 1.473 million tonnes.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2024 production is expected to be ~8.1 million tonnes, higher than 2023, assuming G3 ramp-up through February, Egypt restart in H1 February and other plants at full rates.

• FY2024 New Zealand production is estimated at 1.0–1.1 million tonnes and Chile at 1.1–1.2 million tonnes; actual results may vary with gas availability, turnarounds and outages.

• G3 was expected to reach commercial production imminently and ramp to full rates over February; remaining cash expenditure of $60–110 million, including ~$20 million accrued in payables, was funded with cash on hand.