Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) Q4 2025 & Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference (CAGNY) 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Completed revitalization plan and entered a new phase focused on accelerating growth and simplifying operations for sustainable gains, despite net sales revenue declining 4.0% in Q4 2025 and 4.8% for the year due to lower volumes and contract brewing exits.

• Maintained 70% of US market share gains from 2023 and increased premiumization by 5 percentage points, while Beyond Beer now accounts for nearly 10% of revenue.

• Underlying income before income taxes fell 13.8% in Q4 and 14.7% for the year, reflecting volume deleverage, cost inflation, and restructuring costs.

• Dividend per share increased 6.8% year-over-year, and share repurchases more than doubled in Q4.

• U.S. GAAP net income in Q4 was $238.3M ($1.22/share), but a full-year net loss of $2,139.6M ($10.75/share) due to a $3.65B goodwill impairment.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 net sales revenue: $2,662M (-4.0% YoY); FY 2025: $11,141M (-4.8% YoY); underlying income before income taxes: Q4 $297M (-13.8% YoY), FY $1,385M (-14.7% YoY).

• Underlying EPS: Q4 $1.21 (-6.9% YoY); FY $5.42 (-9.1% YoY); underlying free cash flow: $1,141M (-8.0% YoY).

• Net debt at year-end: $5,403M (+4.4% YoY); leverage ratio at 2.33x, down from 4.8x in 2016.

• Dividend per share: $1.88 for FY 2025 (+6.8% YoY); shares repurchased: 12.9M in 2025 (+18.3% YoY), totaling $652M.

• COGS per hectoliter rose 8.1% in Q4 and 5.8% for the year, driven by cost inflation and unfavorable mix.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 net sales revenue expected flat (+/-1%) in constant currency; underlying income before income taxes projected to decline 15–18%; underlying EPS to decline 11–15%.

• Free cash flow targeted at $1.1B (+/-10%); capital expenditures expected at $650M (+/-5%).

• Facing $125M incremental headwind from Midwest Premium and aluminum pricing in 2026, with higher short-term incentive compensation.

• New three-year cost savings program targeting up to $450M in savings starting 2026.

• Expecting quarters in 2026 to mirror 2025 in shape, with marketing spend concentrated in summer.