Mondelez International (MDLZ) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net revenues grew 5.8% year-over-year to $38.5 billion, with organic net revenue up 4.3% driven by higher pricing, partially offset by a 3.7% decline in volume/mix and significant commodity cost headwinds.

• Achieved 5.1% organic net revenue growth in Q4 2025, driven by cocoa-led pricing, partially offset by volume/mix declines.

• Diluted EPS fell 44.7% to $1.89, while adjusted EPS declined 14.6% on a constant currency basis to $2.92, reflecting lower operating income and higher costs.

• Free cash flow was $3.2 billion, and $4.9 billion was returned to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.

• Focused on improving developed markets' performance while maintaining strong results in emerging markets.

Financial highlights

• Gross profit decreased by $3.3 billion year-over-year, with gross margin dropping 1,070 basis points to 28.4% due to unfavorable mark-to-market impacts and higher raw material costs.

• Q4 2025 organic net revenue growth: +5.1% (price +9.9pp, vol/mix -4.8pp); FY 2025: +4.3% (price +8.0pp, vol/mix -3.7pp).

• Adjusted operating income grew 22.1% in Q4; adjusted EPS up 4.6%.

• FY 2025 adjusted gross profit fell 11.4% and adjusted operating income declined 15.5% at constant FX, mainly due to higher input costs.

• $500 million one-time inventory adjustment in Q1 2026 due to pipeline cost changes.

Outlook and guidance

• For 2026, organic net revenue growth is expected to be flat to 2%, with adjusted EPS growth of flat to 5% on a constant currency basis.

• Free cash flow is projected at approximately $3 billion, with currency translation estimated to add 2% to net revenue growth and $0.06 to adjusted EPS.

• 2026 guidance is prudent, reflecting short-term pressures in the U.S. and stable chocolate category in Europe.

• Flexibility built into guidance due to recent cocoa price volatility and potential competitive reactions.

• Profitability expected to improve in 2027 as cocoa prices normalize and cost pressures ease.