Mondelez International (MDLZ) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net revenues grew 5.8% year-over-year to $38.5 billion, with organic net revenue up 4.3% driven by higher pricing, partially offset by a 3.7% decline in volume/mix and significant commodity cost headwinds.

• Q4 2025 organic net revenue grew 5.1% year-over-year, driven by cocoa-led pricing, partially offset by a 4.8pp volume/mix decline, with 1.3pp from price-pack architecture changes.

• Adjusted EPS for Q4 rose 4.6% at constant currency to $0.72, despite record cocoa input costs and lapping prior year tax favorability.

• Free cash flow was $3.2 billion, and $4.9 billion was returned to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.

• Developed markets faced soft consumer sentiment and economic uncertainty, while emerging markets delivered robust growth.

Financial highlights

• Gross profit decreased by $3.3 billion year-over-year, with gross margin dropping 1,070 basis points to 28.4% due to unfavorable mark-to-market impacts and higher raw material costs.

• Q4 2025 organic net revenue growth: +5.1% (price +9.9pp, vol/mix -4.8pp); FY 2025: +4.3% (price +8.0pp, vol/mix -3.7pp).

• Adjusted operating income grew 22.1% in Q4; adjusted EPS up 4.6%.

• FY 2025 adjusted gross profit fell 11.4% and adjusted operating income declined 15.5% at constant FX, mainly due to higher input costs.

• $500 million one-time inventory adjustment in Q1 2026 due to pipeline cost changes.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 organic net revenue growth expected to be flat to up 2%, with adjusted EPS growth projected flat to up 5% on a constant currency basis.

• Free cash flow outlook for 2026 is approximately $3 billion.

• Guidance is prudent, reflecting short-term pressures in the U.S., stable chocolate category in Europe, and ongoing volatility from geopolitical, trade, regulatory, and commodity price uncertainties.

• H1 2026 profitability will be negatively impacted by ~$500MM inventory cost phasing headwind, mainly in Q1.

• Profitability expected to improve in 2027 as cocoa prices normalize and cost pressures ease.