Mondi (MNDI) Q1 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 saw higher sales volumes, effective cost control, and fewer planned maintenance shuts, offsetting lower average selling prices compared to Q4 2024.

• Underlying EBITDA for Q1 2025 was €290 million, up from €261 million in Q4 2024, including a €2 million forestry fair value gain.

• Major capacity expansion projects, including the new kraft paper machine at Štětí and the converted Duino machine in Italy, are ramping up successfully.

• Integration of the Schumacher acquisition is progressing well, adding 2,200 employees and expanding product offerings and geographic reach.

• Recent price increases in paper grades are expected to benefit results from Q2 2025.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 underlying EBITDA: €290 million (Q4 2024: €261 million; Q1 2024: €214 million).

• Forestry fair value gain of €2 million in Q1 2025, compared to a €27 million loss in Q4 2024.

• Year-on-year incremental contribution from expansion projects expected in the EUR 50–100 million range, depending on pricing.

• Schumacher acquisition expected to contribute approximately EUR 30 million net of transaction and synergy costs for the nine months of ownership in 2024.

• 2024 full-year revenue: €7.4 billion; underlying EBITDA: €1.0 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• Stronger order books and increased demand for sustainable packaging products support recent price increases, with benefits expected from Q2 2025.

• Input costs are expected to remain flat for the full year, despite some intra-quarter volatility.

• Full-year guidance for net contribution from expansion projects remains at EUR 50–100 million.

• Schumacher acquisition is expected to be EPS accretive in its first full year.

• Cautious outlook due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, especially regarding tariffs and global trade flows.