Mondi (MNDI) Q3 2026 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Resilient Q3 performance despite planned maintenance and higher input costs; good order books and positive pricing momentum supported results.

• Focus on pricing, operational excellence, cost optimisation and plant-network efficiency amid volatile energy costs; long-term sustainable packaging growth drivers remain supportive.

Financial highlights

• Q3 underlying EBITDA was €196m versus €167m in Q2; forestry fair value was nil in Q3, compared with a €43m loss in Q2.

• Excluding forestry fair value, underlying EBITDA declined sequentially, primarily due to planned maintenance shuts.

• Q3 gas and other energy-related costs rose €20m–€25m sequentially; wood accounted for roughly half of the €35m H2-versus-H1 cost increase.

Outlook and guidance

• Higher packaging paper prices are expected to support Q4; announced price increases should benefit results toward year-end and into 2027, subject to energy and logistics costs.

• Paper price increases are only beginning to flow through in Q3 and Q4, with further spillover beyond Q4; box and bag pass-through remains in progress, with bag increases expected through new-year contracts.

• Sack kraft price increases now being implemented are expected to have limited impact in 2026 and principally benefit 2027.

• At current energy prices, including South African diesel, forestry fair value gain is expected to be nil in Q4; tree growth may support a 2027 uplift, subject to selling and harvesting prices.