Mondi (MNDI) Q1 2026 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Underlying EBITDA for Q1 2026 was €212 million, including €8 million forestry fair value gain, broadly in line with Q4 2025, despite challenging market conditions and cost pressures from geopolitical tensions.

• Sequential sales volume growth in Corrugated and Flexible Packaging, supported by capacity ramp-up and market share gains, was offset by lower average selling prices and higher input costs.

• No planned maintenance shutdowns occurred in Q1, aiding operational continuity.

• Strong order books and pricing momentum are expected to improve margins in Q2 and Q3.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2026 underlying EBITDA was €212 million, compared to €214 million in Q4 2025 and €290 million in Q1 2025.

• Energy credits were €60 million lower year-on-year, impacting results.

• Forestry fair value gain in Q1 2026 was €8 million, up from €1 million in Q4 2025 but down from €2 million in Q1 2025; full-year gain expected to be nil, with a negative €30 million impact in Q2 due to lower wood chip prices.

• 2025 full-year revenue was €7.7 billion with underlying EBITDA of €1.0 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• Pricing actions are underway to offset higher input costs, with full effect expected by Q3 2026 due to customary lag.

• Margin environment is expected to improve through Q2 and Q3 as price increases take effect.

• Maintenance costs guided at €100 million for the year: €20 million in Q2, €80 million in H2.

• Management remains focused on operational excellence, cost control, and cash flow optimisation amid ongoing market uncertainty.

• Volatile input costs, especially energy and resins, are expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.