Natera (NTRA) Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference summary

Business performance and growth

• Achieved significant volume and revenue growth in 2025, especially in organ health and oncology, with record new patient numbers and strong physician interest.

• Continued innovation with launches such as Signatera Genome, Fetal Focus NIPT, and Latitude MRD test, strengthening market position.

• Women's health business now holds over 50% market share, driven by technology, customer service, and extensive clinical data publication.

• NIPT penetration is in the mid-60% for high and average risk combined, with ongoing opportunities for competitive takeaways and ASP improvement.

• Carrier screening is frequently attached to NIPT, with most doctors ordering both for their patients.

Oncology and clinical data

• Signatera saw record volume growth even as new competitors entered the market, maintaining strong clinical performance and ultra-sensitive detection.

• MRD market penetration remains low, with reimbursement in about seven indications and significant growth potential, especially in colorectal cancer.

• About half of U.S. doctors use Signatera quarterly, indicating broad adoption.

• 30% of Signatera volume is in indications without Medicare coverage, seen as an opportunity as new data supports future reimbursement.

• IMVigor study delivered positive overall survival results, highlighting Signatera's ability to triage patients for therapy, with full data to be presented at a future conference.

Market access, reimbursement, and pricing

• Biomarker state laws now cover about half the U.S. population, driving commercial payer coverage for Signatera and expected to contribute to ASP growth by Q3 2025.

• ASP for Signatera is just under $1,200, with a path to $2,000 through improved Medicare Advantage compliance, commercial coverage, new Medicare indications, and a planned Japan launch in 2027.

• Sequential ASP improvement is expected through Q3 and Q4, with most drivers under internal control.

• NIPT ASPs are in the high $300s, reflecting operational improvements in payer compliance.