Natera (NTRA) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2024 revenue reached $476.1M, up 53% year-over-year, with 793K tests processed, and full year revenue was $1.70B, up 56.7%.

• Gross margin improved to 63% in Q4 2024 (62.9% reported), up from 51% a year ago, driven by higher ASPs and lower COGS.

• Cash flow generation was $46M in Q4 and $86M for the full year, with operational cash flow adjusted to $65M after a $20M asset acquisition.

• Net loss narrowed to $53.8M in Q4 and $190.4M for the year, compared to $78.0M and $434.8M in 2023.

• Significant clinical milestones achieved, including new data for Signatera, expanded Medicare coverage for lung cancer, and large-scale validation of fetal RhD NIPT.

Financial highlights

• Product revenues in Q4 2024 were $472.9M, up from $307.3M in Q4 2023; total revenues $476.1M, up from $311.1M.

• Gross margin rose to 62.9% from 51.4% year-over-year; record margin excluding true-ups was 59%.

• Net loss per diluted share improved to ($0.41) from ($0.65) year-over-year.

• Cash and investments at year-end totaled $968.3M, up $89.3M from prior year; minimal debt after convertible notes redemption.

• Q4 volumes increased 26% year-over-year; oncology test volume rose 54.7% and Organ Health volumes up nearly 50%.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 revenue guidance set at $1.87B–$1.95B, implying ~24% pro-forma growth, with gross margin expected at 60–64%.

• Guidance assumes steady volume growth, stable or improving ASPs, and continued margin expansion.

• SG&A costs projected at $950M–$975M; R&D at $525M–$550M.

• Net cash inflow expected to remain positive in 2025.

• Positive cash flow anticipated, with continued investment in R&D and commercial initiatives.