NextDecade (NEXT) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved positive Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) and financing for Rio Grande LNG Trains 4 and 5, each with $6.7 billion in project costs and expected 6 MTPA capacity per train, with both trains fully funded and construction underway.

• Trains 1-3 are progressing ahead of schedule and on budget, with first LNG expected in 2027.

• The Rio Grande LNG Facility is positioned to become one of the world’s largest LNG export sites, with up to 10 trains and a potential capacity of ~60 MTPA, projected to supply 5% of global LNG liquefaction capacity in the early 2030s.

• Approximately 85% of Trains 1-5 capacity is contracted to 14 creditworthy counterparties through long-term SPAs, including agreements with EQT and ConocoPhillips for Train 5.

• The company is advancing permitting for Trains 6-8 and exploring carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, with pre-filing for Train 6 with FERC expected in 2025.

Financial highlights

• Closed $6.7 billion project financings each for Train 4 and Train 5, including joint venture equity, company equity, and senior secured non-recourse bank credit facilities.

• Phase 1 (Trains 1-3) fully funded with $18 billion in total sources, including $9.2 billion term loan and $6.2 billion equity.

• Additional funding secured through delayed draw term loans, private placement notes, and an exchangeable loan of $100 million convertible into common stock at $9.50 per share, with interest rates ranging from 6.56% to 13.5%.

• Projected steady state annual Rio Grande LNG Project-Level Adjusted EBITDA of $3.7 billion and distributable cash flow of $2.1 billion.

• Attractive all-in cost of capital for Train 4 and 5 equity funding at ~9%.

Outlook and guidance

• First LNG from Trains 1-3 expected in 2027; Trains 4 and 5 to follow, with full five-train operations by early 2030s.

• Expansion trains (6-8) could increase project-level distributable cash flow by ~85%, with each train potentially generating over $0.6 billion annually.

• Focused on safely completing and operating the first five trains, with plans to double LNG capacity by developing Trains 6-8.

• Long-term LNG demand growth expected to remain robust, supporting further commercialization.