NextDecade (NEXT) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved positive final investment decisions (FIDs) for trains four and five in 2025, bringing total LNG capacity under construction to 30 MTPA at Rio Grande LNG, with plans to double capacity to 60 MTPA by adding trains six through ten.

• Secured over 7 MTPA of 20-year LNG SPAs in 2025, completing commercialization of trains four and five at strong prices and adding major new counterparties.

• Construction of trains one through five is ahead of schedule and on budget, with trains one and two nearly 65% complete, train three at 40%, train four at 7.8%, and train five at 3.3% as of January 2026.

• Initiated pre-filing for train six and a third berth, with plans to file a full FERC application by mid-2026 and advance development of trains seven and eight.

Financial highlights

• Closed $6.7 billion project financing for each of trains four and five in 2025, with a mix of equity, joint venture partners, and senior secured, non-recourse bank credit facilities.

• Each of trains four and five fully funded at FID with 60% debt and 40% equity, using innovative back-leveraging and term loans with an all-in expected cost of ~9%.

• No incremental capital raises expected for trains four and five based on current funding sources.

• Annual fixed fee cash flow from SPAs for trains one through five is approximately $3 billion before escalation, with 85% of capacity contracted long-term.

• Projected distributable cash flow from early LNG production (2027–2031) is $2 billion at $5/MMBtu margin, or $1.2 billion at $3/MMBtu margin.

Outlook and guidance

• First LNG production from train one expected in first half of 2027, with commissioning activities beginning in 2026.

• Targeting to double LNG production capacity to 60 MTPA, with up to 10 trains possible at the Rio Grande site.

• Permitting for train six expected to be straightforward, with FERC approval possible by mid-2027 and FID as early as late 2026.

• Projected robust cash flow across a range of market margins, with distributable cash flow sensitivity to LNG margin changes.

• Plan to use early cash flows (2027–1H 2031) to pay down term loan balances and optimize capital structure.