Nordea Bank (NDA-SE) Pre-close call summary

Executive summary

• Significant market volatility due to geopolitical developments in the Middle East has impacted trading and capital markets activity, with some losses expected in Net Fair Value and headwinds for AUM and savings fee income.

• Q1 2026 report will be published on April 22, with a silent period starting April 10; the call focused on Q4 results, macro trends, and line-by-line P&L commentary.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• No policy rate changes in Q1; three-month STIBOR increased by 9 basis points, providing a small funding cost effect.

• Q1 net interest income (NII) expected to decline quarter-on-quarter due to lower day count (~EUR 40 million impact), with Q1 likely being the trough before growth resumes.

• Lending volumes continue to grow, especially in corporate and mortgage segments, but margin pressure persists, likely impacting Q1 NII.

• FX movements (SEK +2%, NOK +3% vs EUR) provide a tailwind for income but a headwind for costs.

• Net fee and commission income expected to decrease in Q1 due to absence of annual/semi-annual fees and lower day count; market performance slightly positive for AUM despite March declines.

• Brokerage and advisory activity likely down year-on-year due to geopolitical uncertainty, with Q1 NCI expected to decrease.

• Net insurance results stable, averaging EUR 60 million per quarter.

• Net Fair Value expected within EUR 200–250 million range for Q1, likely at the midpoint due to weaker market making amid rate volatility.

Profitability and margins

• EUR 190 million restructuring costs to be booked in Q1, excluded from 2026 financial outlook; resolution fee (EUR 35 million last year) also booked in Q1, making it a higher cost quarter.

• Cost management continues to target a full-year cost-to-income ratio of around 45%.

• Staff reductions from restructuring (affecting ~1,500 FTEs) will deliver cost benefits gradually in 2026–2027, not immediately in Q1.