Nordea Bank (NDA-SE) Pre-close call summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2026 pre-close call reviewed Q2 results, macro trends, and provided guidance on key financial metrics ahead of the Q3 report release on October 15th.

• Focus was on interest rate hikes, FX movements, and their impact on net interest income, margins, and costs.

• Management reiterated capital deployment priorities, ongoing AML proceedings, and expectations for loan losses and tax rates.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• ECB, Danish, and Norwegian central banks each raised rates by 25bps in Q3, increasing interbank rates and impacting funding costs.

• FX became a headwind for income, especially due to a 2% weaker SEK, while USD appreciated 1% against the euro.

• Lending margin pressure persisted, offsetting volume growth; Danish mortgage price cuts and Norwegian repricing had mixed effects.

• Deposit margins benefited from policy rate hikes, with limited Q3 impact from September hikes but more expected in Q4.

• Net fee and commission income expected to be seasonally lower in Q3 due to summer slowdown and absence of semi-annual fees.

Profitability and margins

• Net interest income in Q2 was EUR 1.779bn; Q3 faces headwinds from margin pressure, FX, and technical items, but some offset from deposit margins.

• Net fair value result expected at the lower end of EUR 200m–250m range due to market volatility and seasonal slowness.

• Costs expected to rise slightly quarter-on-quarter due to salary increases, higher depreciation, and Norwegian VAT changes.

• Loan losses anticipated to rise toward long-term average of 10bps, with some provisioning for Danish agricultural exposures.

• Tax rate expected to remain stable around 23.4%.