Nordea Bank (NDA-SE) Status Update summary

Global outlook

• Global GDP growth forecast at 3.0% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024; developed economies face sluggish growth as inflation remains high.

• China growth forecast remains 6.0% in 2023, slowing to 4.0% in 2024; the rebound is service-led, limiting global spillovers.

• Sticky core inflation keeps rate hikes in view; forecast peak rates are 5.5% for the Fed and 3.75% for the ECB, with cuts unlikely until well into 2024.

• Nordic economies have remained resilient, but household spending, housing prices and construction are under pressure; a slowdown and slight rise in unemployment are expected.

Sweden

• GDP forecast at -1.2% in 2023 and 0.4% in 2024; household spending and exports weaken, extending the downturn.

• Housing prices forecast to fall 20% from the early-2022 peak before bottoming in H2 2023; housing starts forecast at 22,500 in 2023, a third of 2021 levels.

• Unemployment is expected to rise, reaching around 8.5% in 2024; the Riksbank is expected to tighten near term and cut rates in 2024.

Denmark

• GDP growth forecast at 0.5% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024; real wage growth is expected to support a pickup in household spending toward year-end.

• Average inflation forecast at 4.7% in 2023; single-family home prices expected to fall 7.5% this year, with the downturn continuing through 2023.

• Private-sector wage agreements imply salary increases of 9–10% over two years; policy rates are forecast to peak at 3.35% by mid-year.