Nutrien (NTR) Bank of America 2026 Global Agriculture and Materials Conference summary

Business performance and market environment

• Achieved strong results in 2025 despite headwinds in North American agriculture, with robust fertilizer prices and above mid-cycle phosphate market levels.

• Demand for food continues to grow globally, with limited arable land expansion, driving ongoing need for agricultural inputs and technology.

• Maintains a leading position with high-quality upstream assets, extensive supply chain logistics, and the largest fertilizer production footprint worldwide.

• Increased fertilizer production by $1.3 million and downstream earnings by $300 million in the past year, with retail earnings growing structurally at 5–6% annually.

• Focused on cost reduction, achieving a $200 million SG&A target, and emphasizing capital discipline and allocation.

Capital allocation and portfolio strategy

• Removed $600 million from CapEx in recent years, simplifying investments to core business areas with structural advantages.

• Introduced ratable share repurchases and steady dividend growth as part of a disciplined capital allocation framework.

• No major multi-year capital projects planned; CapEx guidance for 2026 is $2–2.1 billion, with a focus on automation, bottleneck removal, and retail priorities.

• Recent divestitures and debt reduction have strengthened the balance sheet, increasing cash available for shareholder returns.

• Ongoing portfolio review includes potential exits from underperforming regions such as Brazil and Trinidad, with decisions expected in 2026.

Retail business outlook and regional focus

• Retail EBITDA guidance for 2026 targets $1.9–2.1 billion, with structural growth driven by proprietary products and cost takeout.

• Mid-single digit fertilizer volume growth and high single digit proprietary product growth expected in 2026.

• Tuck-in acquisitions are being scrutinized more rigorously, with a focus on North America, especially the U.S. Corn Belt, and limited activity in Australia.

• Brazil retail business under review due to underperformance; capital likely to be redeployed elsewhere.

• U.S. government support and global market shifts are impacting crop choices and profitability for North American farmers.