Nutrien (NTR) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved adjusted EBITDA of $6.05 billion in 2025, up 13% year-over-year, with net earnings of $2.30 billion, record fertilizer sales volumes, and strong execution of strategic and cost reduction plans, boosting Retail adjusted EBITDA and shareholder returns.

• Raised potash sales guidance twice, achieved 49% mine automation, and maintained potash controllable cash cost at $58/ton, below the $60/ton goal.

• Generated $900 million from non-core asset divestitures, including Profertil and Sinofert, and reduced short-term debt by over $600 million.

• Increased cash return to shareholders by 30% through share repurchases and stable dividends, with shares outstanding down 4.9% from 2023 to 2025.

• Executed portfolio simplification and closed over 50 underperforming retail locations, reducing headcount by 400+ positions.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA reached $6.05 billion in 2025, a 13% increase from the prior year, with net earnings of $2.30 billion and sales of $26.89 billion.

• Retail adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.74 billion, surpassing cost savings targets, with Potash at $2.25 billion, Nitrogen at $2.15 billion, and Phosphate at $382 million.

• Capital expenditures reduced to $2 billion, below the $2.2-$2.3 billion target.

• Free cash flow structurally increased, supporting debt reduction and higher shareholder returns.

• Diluted net earnings per share for 2025 were $4.66, up 243% from 2024; adjusted net EPS was $4.56, up 31%.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance projects Retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.75–$1.95 billion, Potash sales volumes of 14.1–14.8 million tonnes, Nitrogen sales volumes of 9.2–9.7 million tonnes, and Phosphate 2.4–2.6 million tonnes.

• Capital expenditures for 2026 guided at $2–$2.1 billion, with $400 million for growth investments.

• Effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings expected at 24.0–26.0%.

• Nitrogen margin profile expected to improve due to operational enhancements and facility shutdowns.

• Continued review of strategic alternatives for phosphate, Trinidad, and Brazilian retail businesses.