Nutrien (NTR) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2023 net earnings were $1.282B and adjusted EBITDA was $6.058B; operating cash flow totaled $5.1B, or 84% of adjusted EBITDA. Returned $2.1B to shareholders.

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $1.075B versus $2.095B in Q4 2022; net earnings were $176M versus $1.118B.

• Management expects higher fertilizer sales volumes and Retail earnings in 2024, supported by steadier crop input markets and demand.

Financial highlights

• 2023 adjusted EBITDA fell to $6.058B from $12.170B in 2022; net earnings were $1.282B versus $7.687B.

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA declined to $1.075B from $2.095B YoY; net earnings fell to $176M from $1.118B.

• 2023 cash provided by operating activities was $5.1B; cash conversion was 84% of adjusted EBITDA.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 guidance: Retail adjusted EBITDA $1.65B–$1.85B; Potash sales 13.0–13.8M tonnes; Nitrogen 10.6–11.2M; Phosphate 2.6–2.8M.

• 2024 guidance includes D&A of $2.2B–$2.3B, finance costs of $0.75B–$0.85B, adjusted earnings tax rate of 24%–26%, and total capex of $2.2B–$2.3B.

• Global potash demand is forecast at 68–71M tonnes in 2024; North American channel inventories were tight entering the year.

• Crop nutrient sales volumes and per-tonne margins are expected to improve, especially against compressed H1 2023 levels; Brazilian crop protection margins are expected to recover in H2 2024.

• Nitrogen supply constraints are expected to persist, while phosphate markets are expected to remain supported by tight inventories in North America and India.