Nutrien (NTR) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2024 was $4.3 billion, with Retail, Potash, and Nitrogen segments contributing $1.4 billion, $1.6 billion, and $1.4 billion, respectively; net earnings for the period totaled $582 million.

• Achieved significant progress on 2026 performance targets, accelerating $200 million in annual operational efficiency and cost savings to 2025, one year ahead of schedule.

• Increased upstream sales volumes and downstream retail business volumes despite headwinds in Brazil and softer North American ag commodity prices.

• 1.5 million shares were repurchased for $75 million since late September, with plans for continued ratable buybacks.

• Strategic focus remains on cost savings, capital expenditure optimization, fertilizer sales growth, and downstream Retail expansion.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2024 was $4.3 billion (down 14% year-over-year); retail Adjusted EBITDA up 10% to $1.4 billion; Potash adjusted EBITDA was $1.6 billion, and Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA was $1.4 billion.

• Potash sales volumes reached record levels (11.1 million tonnes YTD), offsetting lower benchmark prices; Potash gross margin for Q3 2024 YTD declined to $1,314 million.

• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA decreased year-over-year as lower prices offset lower natural gas costs, but Q3 saw a 21% increase to $355 million.

• Q3 2024 sales were $5.35 billion, down 5% year-over-year; nine-month sales were $20.89 billion, down 11%.

• Cash from operations for the nine months was $412 million, down from $916 million year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2024 Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance is $1.5–$1.6 billion; Potash sales volume guidance raised to 13.5–13.9 million tonnes on strong global demand.

• Nitrogen sales volume guidance revised to 10.6–10.8 million tonnes due to outages and weather events; Phosphate sales volume guidance lowered to 2.4–2.5 million tonnes.

• Capital expenditures for 2024 are $2.2–$2.3 billion, with 2025 expected at $2.0–$2.1 billion.

• Effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings guided at 21.5–22.5% for 2024, lowered due to geographic earnings mix.

• Potash controllable cash cost of production expected down 5% from 2023.