PT Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Group revenue for 9M 2024 reached $1,668 million, up 43% year-over-year, with EBITDA at $222 million, up 22% YoY, but net loss widened to $20 million, down 405% YoY.

• MBMA contributed $1,380 million in revenue (up 158% YoY) and $114 million in EBITDA (up 78% YoY), with net profit of $60 million (up 124% YoY).

• Interim consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended 30 September 2024 were audited and received an unqualified opinion, confirming fair presentation in accordance with Indonesian Financial Accounting Standards.

• Major project milestones include commissioning of PT ESG HPAL’s first production line, progress at Pani Gold Project (28% complete), and near-completion of the AIM copper cathode plant.

• Key audit matters included accounting for business combinations and loss of control over a subsidiary, both addressed with detailed audit procedures and adequate disclosures.

Financial highlights

• Consolidated revenue grew 42.5% YoY, driven by full nine months of HGNM sales, 18% YoY growth in NPI sales, and new limonite ore sales.

• EBITDA increased to $222 million (up 21.9% YoY), mainly from gold, NPI, copper, HGNM, and limonite segments.

• Net loss before minority was $20 million, impacted by higher finance costs and foreign exchange losses.

• MBMA’s EBITDA margin declined to 8.3% (from 7.3% YoY), with NPI and HGNM margins dropping due to lower ASPs.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 guidance: gold production 110,000–120,000 oz at $950–1,050/oz cash cost; copper 13,500–14,000 t at $3.65–4.00/lb cash cost.

• MBMA targets 80,000–85,000 t NPI and 50,000–55,000 t HGNM at $10,000–12,000/t and $13,000–15,000/t cash costs, respectively.

• 2025 focus: ramp-up of AIM plant, increased mining at SCM, expansion of HPAL capacity, and new partnerships.

• 2025 guidance: limonite sales 12.5–15.0m wmt, saprolite 6.0–7.0m wmt, NPI 85,000–90,000 t, HGNM 50,000–55,000 t.