Rumo (RAIL3) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Transported volume rose 4% year-over-year to nearly 22 billion RTK, led by an 8% increase in the Northern Operation, especially in soybeans, pulp, and bauxite, while the Southern Operation saw gradual recovery despite an overall decline.

• Adjusted EBITDA increased 6% year-over-year to R$2,279 million, with adjusted net income stable at R$731 million despite high interest rates.

• Market share in grain exports through Santos port reached 51%, up from 44% in 1Q25, and Mato Grosso share normalized at 42% due to record soybean harvest.

• Distributed R$1.5 billion in dividends and maintained a financial leverage ratio of 1.8x.

• Capex reached R$1,395 million, aligned with investment plans and focused on Mato Grosso expansion.

Financial highlights

• Net revenue grew 4% year-over-year to R$3,711 million, primarily from higher volumes in the Northern Operation.

• Variable costs rose 22% due to higher volumes and third-party rolling stock expenses, partially offset by fuel efficiency gains.

• Fixed costs and SG&A expenses declined 3% nominally, reflecting ongoing efficiency efforts.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 61.4% from 59.9% year-over-year.

• Net profit was R$333 million, reversing a loss of R$1,743 million in 2Q24; adjusted net margin stable at 19.7%.

Outlook and guidance

• Guidance for 2025 remains unchanged for volume, EBITDA, and CapEx.

• Expansion capex in Mato Grosso accelerated, with R$468 million invested in the quarter, supporting future capacity.

• Expect a busier fourth quarter, with operational capacity ready to handle higher volumes as needed.

• Pricing expected to remain stable, with a focus on maintaining healthy margins and competitiveness.

• Ongoing operational improvements and cost discipline expected to support margins amid competitive pressures.