Rumo (RAIL3) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Transported volume reached a record 22.9 billion RTK in 4Q25, up 15% year-over-year, with full-year volume up 5%, driven by grains, sugar, and bauxite growth and operational efficiency.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 4Q25 was BRL 1.8 billion, up 8% year-over-year, supported by cost control and operational improvements.

• Major investments included 80% completion of the Mato Grosso Railway phase one, capacity upgrades, and safety enhancements.

• Tactical price repositioning restored competitiveness, with a planned price reduction of just under 10% for Q1 2026.

• Market share in grain exports through Santos was 65% in 4Q25 and 54% for the year, with recovery after commercial repositioning.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for 4Q25 reached BRL 1.8 billion (+8% YoY), and BRL 8.0 billion for 2025 (+4% YoY), with margins of 54% and 58%, respectively.

• Adjusted net income was BRL 441 million in 4Q25 and BRL 2.1 billion for 2025, both increasing year-over-year.

• Net revenue for 4Q25 was BRL 3,819 million, up from BRL 3,463 million in 4Q24; full-year net revenue was BRL 13,848 million (-0.6% YoY).

• Investments totaled BRL 1.5 billion in 4Q25 and BRL 6.1 billion in 2025, focused on maintenance and expansion.

• Net financial expenses in Q4 were BRL 721 million, reflecting higher net debt and interest rates.

Outlook and guidance

• Expecting a price reduction of just over 10% in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025, with stable prices anticipated for the remainder of the year.

• CapEx for 2026 will be lower than 2025 but higher than 2024, focused on completing Mato Grosso phase one and ongoing maintenance.

• 2025 actuals were within guidance: transported volume 84.2bn RTK, EBITDA BRL 8,021mn, Capex BRL 6,112mn.

• Soybean and corn production and exports in Brazil and Mato Grosso expected to remain robust through 2026, supporting rail demand.

• Confident in delivering over 90 billion RTK in transported volumes and completing major projects as planned.