Rumo (RAIL3) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record transported volume of 79.8 billion RTK in 2024, up 3% year-over-year, consolidating leadership in logistics corridors and agribusiness transport despite weather and crop challenges.

• Adjusted EBITDA reached R$7.7 billion in 2024 (+37%), with Q4 at R$1.7 billion (+38%), and adjusted net income more than doubled to R$2.1 billion.

• Significant market share gains in Mato Grosso (+5 p.p.), Goiás (+7 p.p.), and at key export ports, supported by new pulp mill operations and expanded industrial product volumes.

• Major progress in Mato Grosso railway construction and infrastructure, with rapid mobilization and key milestones achieved.

• Recognized for ESG performance, with a 3.33% reduction in specific carbon emissions and continued inclusion in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

Financial highlights

• Net revenue grew 27% to R$13,936 million in 2024, driven by higher volumes and a 24% increase in average tariff.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 55% for the year, up 3 p.p.; adjusted net margin reached 15% (up 8 p.p. year-over-year).

• Net financial result for Q4 was BRL 735 million, with lower debt costs due to reduced interest rates.

• Capex totaled R$5,523 million in 2024, up 48%, with major investments in Mato Grosso expansion and infrastructure upgrades.

• Financial leverage improved to 1.4x net debt/Adjusted EBITDA, down from 1.8x in 2023.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: transported volume of 82–86 billion RTK, adjusted EBITDA of R$8.1–8.7 billion, and capex of R$5.8–6.5 billion.

• Modest growth anticipated in grain segment, with increased train circulation capacity but no major port expansion.

• EBITDA guidance reflects higher transported volumes and margin stabilization after three years of strong price hikes.

• CapEx to remain elevated, focusing on Mato Grosso railway, Malha Paulista enhancements, and Santos port improvements.

• Management expects continued growth but notes macroeconomic and interest rate headwinds.