Rumo (RAIL3) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Transported volume reached a record 77.3bn RTK in 2023, up 3% YoY; 4Q23 volume rose 9% to 19.6bn RTK.

• FY23 EBITDA was R$5,650m, up 31% YoY on a like-for-like basis; net income totaled R$722m.

• Higher railway yields supported results despite lower fuel prices; 2024 volumes were contracted in advance.

Financial highlights

• Net operating revenue rose 18% YoY to R$2,616m in 4Q23 and 11% to R$10,938m in FY23.

• Reported EBITDA was R$1,207m in 4Q23 and R$5,650m in FY23; adjusted EBITDA growth was 42% and 31% YoY on a like-for-like basis, respectively.

• 4Q23 net income was R$1m versus R$243m in 4Q22; FY23 net income rose 40.5% to R$722m. Prior-year quarter included one-off gains.

• Gross profit rose 38.5% YoY to R$810m in 4Q23 and 30.3% to R$4,099m in FY23.

• 4Q23 financial result was an expense of R$594m, including R$349m cost of net debt and R$245m other expenses; FY23 capex totaled R$3,737m.

Outlook and guidance

• FY24 guidance: transported volume of 81–84bn RTK, adjusted EBITDA of R$7,200–7,700m and capex of R$5,300–5,800m.

• FY23 results were within guidance: 77.3bn RTK volume, R$5,650m EBITDA and R$3,737m capex.

• Guidance excludes one-off EBITDA effects and potential M&A, divestments or new concessions; capex includes Phase 1 of the Mato Grosso extension.