SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Entered a definitive agreement for acquisition by GFL Environmental at $24.75/share, a 23% premium to 60-day VWAP, implying a $6.4B enterprise value, with shareholders able to elect cash, GFL shares, or a mix; closing expected in H2 2026.

• Board, Special Committee, and major shareholders representing ~21% of shares unanimously support the transaction; vote scheduled for May 27, 2026.

• Q1 2026 delivered strong results with Adjusted EBITDA of $137 million, up 13% year-over-year and 21% per share, despite lower oil prices for most of the quarter.

• Combined entity will be a scaled, diversified waste management platform with enhanced growth and financial profile.

• Shareholders retain ~16% ownership in the combined entity, with potential for further upside.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA reached $137 million on $383 million revenue, with a 36% margin; Adjusted EBITDA per share grew at 8% CAGR from 2022–2025.

• Discretionary free cash flow for Q1 2026 was $88 million, up 31% year-over-year; DFCF conversion above 50% of EBITDA, with 2026e DFCF projected at ~$425M.

• Funds flow from operations was $101 million, supporting capital programs and shareholder returns.

• Dividend increased by 5% to $0.105 per share quarterly; nearly 1 million shares repurchased at over $17 average.

• Total Debt to Adjusted EBITDA at 2.3x at quarter-end; 2025 year-end at 2.1x (1.8x ex-leases).

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 results expected at the high end of Adjusted EBITDA guidance ($520–$550 million), with growth capital increased to $100 million to accelerate infrastructure projects.

• Organic revenue CAGR of ~7% since 2022, driven by stable, recurring waste streams and disciplined pricing.

• Business fundamentals remain strong, with stable volumes and predictable cash flow driven by long-cycle production and environmental mandates.

• Volume growth expected to track 3% annually, in line with Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin production forecasts.

• High single-digit compound annual growth profile anticipated, with upside from disciplined M&A.