SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered solid Q2 2025 results with resilience in core infrastructure-backed business, despite headwinds from forest fires, U.S. steel tariffs, and a 6% year-over-year revenue decline to $2,469 million.

• Maintained 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $510–$540 million, supported by organic growth projects and stable industrial fundamentals.

• Returned $286 million to shareholders YTD via dividends and share repurchases, including a $137 million substantial issuer bid and $104 million under NCIB, repurchasing 7% of shares.

• Completed major metals recycling acquisitions in January 2025, expanding processing capacity and geographic reach.

• Business transformation over the past decade has shifted to 80% recurring/production cash flows and 90% infrastructure focus.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $110 million ($0.49/share), up 14% per share year-over-year, but down 4% in absolute terms due to seasonality and metals market volatility.

• Revenue (excluding purchase/resale) was $353 million, up 5% from Q2 2024, driven by steady core volumes, pricing increases, and acquisitions.

• Net income for Q2 2025 was $31 million ($0.14/share), up 17% per share year-over-year; H1 2025 net income was $69 million, down from $454 million in H1 2024 due to a prior-year asset sale gain.

• Discretionary free cash flow was $54 million, up 20% per share year-over-year.

• Market capitalization of $3.7B and enterprise value of $4.5B as of June 30, 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $510–$540 million, with Q4 expected to be the strongest quarter due to metals market recovery and new project contributions.

• Discretionary free cash flow projected at $270–$300 million for 2025; organic growth capital program of $125 million focused on Montney region and infrastructure upgrades.

• Canadian crude oil supply expected to grow 2.5% annually to 2030, supporting production volumes.

• Long-term demand growth for recycled steel and increased landfill volumes anticipated due to regulatory changes.

• Management expects quarterly fluctuations in results due to seasonality and advises caution in quarter-over-quarter comparisons.