SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered a strong Q3 2025, with infrastructure-backed business showing resilience and 80% of adjusted EBITDA derived from recurring production and industrial activity, supporting stable cash flows.

• Core operations focus on collection, processing, recovery, recycling, and disposal of industrial waste in Western Canada and North Dakota, with a critical infrastructure network.

• Business transformation over the past decade increased recurring cash flows from 40% to 80%, expanded facilities from 26 to 80, and shifted focus to waste management and energy infrastructure.

• Metals recycling business faced continued weakness due to tariffs, foreign oversupply, and soft Canadian demand, prompting a shift of 95% of shipments to U.S. markets.

• Major infrastructure projects in Alberta Montney region progressing on schedule, expected to drive future growth.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $135 million, up 6% year-over-year and 17% higher on a per share basis.

• Revenue excluding oil purchase and resale was $365 million, down 2% from Q3 2024, mainly due to lower specialty chemicals sales and drilling/completions volumes.

• Net income was $1 million, down from $94 million in Q3 2024, impacted by a non-cash $55 million provision and absence of a prior year tax recovery.

• Funds flow from operations was $96 million; discretionary free cash flow was $68 million.

• Market capitalization at $4.4B and enterprise value at $5.3B as of September 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance revised to $500 million, reflecting delayed ferrous metal sales, weaker macro environment, and a canceled acquisition.

• 2025 organic growth capital program of $125M, focused on water disposal infrastructure and facility upgrades.

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA expected to be consistent with Q3, with results subject to seasonal and market factors.

• 2026 outlook anticipates solid Adjusted EBITDA growth from new project start-ups, metals recovery, and stable demand.

• Long-term demand growth anticipated for recycled steel, with global scrap demand expected to double by 2040.