TC Energy (TRP) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved strong operational and financial performance in Q1 2025, with approximately 1% growth in comparable EBITDA and segmented earnings year-over-year, record throughput, and high system utilization across all pipeline segments.

• Major projects, including Southeast Gateway (completed 13% under budget and ready for service, pending regulatory approval) and Northwoods (US$0.9 billion, 20-year contract), were completed or sanctioned, supporting growth in natural gas and nuclear power.

• 97% of comparable EBITDA is underpinned by rate-regulated or long-term take-or-pay contracts, supporting a low-risk business model and 25 consecutive years of dividend growth.

• Strategic focus on disciplined growth, operational excellence, and maintaining financial flexibility, with new investments in natural gas and nuclear power generation.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 comparable EBITDA from continuing operations was $2.7 billion, up 1% year-over-year; comparable earnings were $1.0 billion ($0.95 per share), and net income attributable to common shares was $1.0 billion ($0.94 per share).

• Revenues from continuing operations increased to $3.62 billion from $3.51 billion year-over-year.

• 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook reaffirmed at $10.7–$10.9 billion, with a 7%-9% increase over 2024; 2027 target at $11.7–$11.9 billion, implying a 5%-7% three-year CAGR.

• Net capital expenditures for 2025 expected between $5.5–$6.0 billion; approximately $8.5 billion of assets to be placed into service in 2025, tracking 15% under budget.

• Declared a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share, annualized at $3.40.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025–2027 EBITDA guidance reaffirmed, with upside potential from FX and new projects; comparable EPS for 2025 expected to be lower than 2024.

• Gross capital expenditures for 2025 projected at $6.1–$6.6 billion; net capital expenditures at $5.5–$6.0 billion.

• Strong origination pipeline with increased cadence of project announcements expected in H2 2025 and into 2026.

• No material impact expected from FX volatility due to systematic hedging.

• Dividend growth target of 3–5% supported by organic EBITDA growth and project execution.