Telenor (TEL) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered solid Q1 2025 results amid geopolitical and macroeconomic turbulence, emphasizing operational resilience, trusted networks, and stability as a provider of critical infrastructure.

• Transformation initiatives and technology investments drove operational efficiency, new service launches, and simplification, notably in the Nordics.

• Free cash flow before M&A reached NOK 2,971 million, supporting a reaffirmed full-year financial outlook.

• Continued focus on mission-critical and sovereign digital solutions, including AI Factory, defense communications, and trusted digital infrastructure.

• CEO highlighted customer trust, digital infrastructure, and simplification as key priorities.

Financial highlights

• Group service revenues rose 2.1% year-over-year to NOK 16,113 million; adjusted EBITDA up 2.0% to NOK 8,641 million, mainly driven by the Nordics.

• Adjusted EPS was NOK 1.96, up 4% year-over-year; adjusted net income NOK 2,681 million.

• CapEx to sales ratio at 12.8%, reflecting prudent investment as 5G rollout nears completion in the Nordics.

• Leverage ratio improved to 2.2x, down from 2.4x at year-end 2024.

• Free cash flow before M&A was NOK 2,971 million, down 10% year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2025 outlook reaffirmed: low single-digit organic service revenue growth, mid single-digit organic adjusted EBITDA growth, capex/sales around 14%, and free cash flow before M&A around NOK 13 billion.

• Group EBITDA and free cash flow expected to be back-end loaded, with improvement in Grameenphone and Nordics in H2 2025.

• Nordics CapEx to sales ratio expected to rise in later quarters due to seasonality.

• Regulatory approval for Telenor Pakistan divestment is pending, with closing expected in H2 2025.

• Effective tax rate for 2025 estimated at 27%.