Telenor (TEL) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• New CEO and CFO prioritized customer focus, capital management, and shareholder remuneration for 2025, with a new strategy to be presented at Capital Markets Day in Q4.

• Delivered solid Q4 2024 performance in a competitive Nordic market, with strong free cash flow and continued transformation progress.

• Macro headwinds in Bangladesh weighed on Asia segment results, partially offset by strong performance in Pakistan.

• Nordic transformation initiatives yielded significant opex and working capital savings, with legacy IT systems shut down and commercial programs implemented.

• Four business areas (Nordics, Asia, infrastructure, Amp) each have tailored value creation strategies, with ongoing evaluation of inorganic opportunities.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 service revenue grew 1.1% year-over-year to NOK 16,266 million; full-year 2024 service revenue up 3.3% to NOK 64,520 million.

• Q4 EBITDA increased 2.0% year-over-year to NOK 8,479 million; full-year EBITDA up 3.5% to NOK 34,980 million.

• Free cash flow before M&A reached NOK 11.4 billion for 2024, and NOK 13.3 billion including M&A, exceeding proposed dividend payments.

• Net income for Q4 was NOK 2,055 million, compared to a loss of NOK 7,416 million in Q4 2023, reflecting fewer impairments and improved operating profit.

• EPS was NOK 1.27 for Q4 and NOK 13.88 for the full year, both significantly improved year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: free cash flow before M&A of around NOK 13 billion, covering dividends.

• Nordic service revenues expected to grow low single digits, EBITDA mid-single digits, and CapEx to sales (ex-leases) to fall to ~14%.

• Group EBITDA expected to grow low to mid-single digits, with Bangladesh recovery as a key variable.

• Asia expected to contribute NOK 5 billion in upstreamed free cash flow, with True expected to start paying dividends in H2 2025.

• Dividend per share expected to grow year-on-year; Board proposes NOK 9.60 per share for 2024.