Telenor (TEL) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong Q4 2025 financial performance, meeting outlook and strategic ambitions, with a focus on portfolio simplification and value creation, including exits from Pakistan and Thailand.

• Board proposed NOK 9.70 per share dividend and NOK 15 billion share buyback program, subject to AGM approval.

• Strong commitment to shareholder returns and disciplined capital allocation, prioritizing revenue growth and cost efficiencies.

• Major portfolio simplification included sale of Telenor Pakistan, announced divestment of True in Thailand, and acquisition of GlobalConnect's consumer business in Norway.

• Transformation and digitalisation trends continue to drive operational efficiency and new service offerings.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 service revenues grew 2.6% year-over-year to NOK 15,311 million; adjusted EBITDA up 11.7% to NOK 8,561 million.

• Free cash flow before M&A was NOK 12,869 million for the year; Q4 FCF before M&A was NOK 4,095 million (+33.2% YoY).

• Adjusted EPS rose to NOK 2.21 in Q4, an 89% increase; full-year adjusted EPS was NOK 8.22.

• Leverage ratio ended at 2.2x, within the 1.8–2.3 target range; ROCE at 9.2% (13.6% excluding associates/JVs).

• CapEx to sales ratio: 15.5% for Q4, 13.8% for the year.

Outlook and guidance

• For 2026, expects low single-digit organic service revenue growth and mid-single-digit organic EBITDA growth in the Nordics.

• CapEx to sales ratio forecasted around 14% in the Nordics, with significant quarterly variations.

• Group FCF before M&A (excluding dividends from associates and incremental spectrum) guided at NOK 10–11 billion.

• Mid/long-term ambitions: NOK 12–13 billion FCF before M&A in 2028, NOK 14–15 billion in 2030, ROCE above 11% in 2028 and 12% in 2030.

• National roaming revenues in Norway expected to fade during 2026 and be negligible by 2027.