Telia (TELIA) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved all 2024 outlook metrics, including service revenue growth of 1.8%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 4.3%, CapEx below SEK 14 billion, and structural cash flow within SEK 7–8 billion range.

• New country-led operating model implemented December 2024, targeting SEK 2.6 billion in annual savings and faster decision-making, with limited operational disruption.

• Board proposes an unchanged dividend of SEK 2.00 per share for 2024, to be paid in four tranches.

• Sale of Danish operations completed, generating a capital gain and supporting deleveraging; agreement to sell stake in Marshall Group.

• Net income rose to SEK 7,781 million from SEK 897 million year-over-year, and EPS improved to SEK 1.80.

Financial highlights

• Q4 service revenue grew 1.5% year-over-year; full-year group service revenue just under 2%.

• Adjusted EBITDA grew 5.8% in Q4, with full-year margin up to 35.2%.

• Booked CapEx for 2024 at SEK 13.5 billion, below guidance.

• Free cash flow for 2024 was SEK 4.0 billion, or SEK 1.02 per share, ahead of consensus.

• Net debt at year-end was SEK 71,378 million; leverage ratio at 2.28x, down from 2.32x year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: service revenue growth around 2%, adjusted EBITDA growth at least 5%, CapEx below SEK 14 billion, and free cash flow around SEK 8 billion.

• 2025–2027 ambitions: service revenue CAGR 2%, adjusted EBITDA CAGR 4%, annual CapEx below SEK 14 billion, and free cash flow above SEK 10 billion by 2027.

• Leverage target remains 2.0–2.5x net debt/adjusted EBITDA.

• Service revenue growth expected to be slightly lower in H1 and higher in H2, with less pronounced swings than prior years.