Telia (TELIA) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved first full dividend coverage by free cash flow in five years, with no vendor financing, and delivered on EBITDA and free cash flow targets despite challenges in Norway and Finland.

• Service revenue grew 1.5% like for like for the full year, with strong momentum in Sweden and the Baltics, offset by declines in Finland and Norway.

• Adjusted EBITDA grew 5.2% like for like, driven by service revenue growth and cost discipline.

• Portfolio management advanced with the sale of TV and Media, agreement to divest Latvian operations, and acquisition of Bredband2.

• Customer satisfaction (NPS) improved across most markets.

Financial highlights

• Service revenue grew 2.1% in Q4 and 1.5% for FY 2025, slightly below outlook due to headwinds in Norway and Finland.

• Adjusted EBITDA increased 3.7% in Q4 and 5.2% for FY 2025, with margin improving to 39.4%.

• Free cash flow reached SEK 9.6 billion (normalized), significantly above the SEK 8 billion outlook and comfortably covered dividends.

• CapEx for the year was SEK 12.8 billion, below the improved guidance of SEK 13 billion.

• Leverage improved to 1.93x from 2.28x a year ago; net debt decreased by SEK 9.8 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance: service revenue growth around 2% like for like, adjusted EBITDA growth around 3%, CapEx below SEK 13 billion, free cash flow expected to be around SEK 9 billion.

• Free cash flow in 2026 expected to be back-end loaded, with a soft Q1 due to working capital reversal and high interest payments.

• Dividend proposed to increase from SEK 2.00 to SEK 2.05 per share, to be paid in four tranches.

• Mid-term ambition: service revenue CAGR 2%, adjusted EBITDA CAGR 4% for 2025-2027, free cash flow above SEK 10 billion by 2027.