The GEO Group (GEO) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 revenue reached $682.3 million, up 13% year-over-year, with net income rising to $173.9 million from $26.3 million in Q3 2024, driven by record new or expanded contracts and major asset sales.

• Achieved over $460 million in incremental annualized revenues from new or expanded contracts in 2025, the largest in company history.

• Major asset sales included the Lawton Correctional Facility ($312 million) and Hector Garza Center ($9.6–$10 million), resulting in a $232 million gain and proceeds used to pay off debt and purchase the San Diego facility.

• Share repurchase authorization increased to $500 million, with 1.97–2 million shares repurchased for $41.6–$42 million in Q3 2025.

• A $37.6–$38 million non-cash contingent litigation reserve was recorded for the Washington state detainee wage case.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 net income: $173.9–$174 million ($1.24/diluted share) on $682.3 million revenue, up from $26.3 million ($0.19/diluted share) on $603 million revenue in Q3 2024.

• Adjusted Q3 2025 net income: $35 million ($0.25/diluted share), up from $29 million ($0.21/diluted share) in Q3 2024.

• Adjusted Q3 2025 EBITDA: $120.1 million, nearly flat year-over-year; nine months Adjusted EBITDA: $338.5 million.

• Q3 2025 operating expenses rose 15–15.2% year-over-year due to new contracts, higher occupancy, labor, and medical costs.

• Q3 2025 effective tax rate: 24.6–25%, impacted by a $56.4 million discrete tax expense from the Lawton sale.

Outlook and guidance

• Q4 2025 GAAP net income expected at $0.23–$0.27/diluted share on $651–$676 million revenue; adjusted EBITDA $117–$127 million.

• Full-year 2025 GAAP net income guidance: $1.81–$1.85/diluted share; adjusted net income: $0.84–$0.87/diluted share; adjusted EBITDA: $455–$465 million; revenue expected at $2.6 billion; capital expenditures $200–$205 million.

• Management expects 2025 annual effective tax rate of 29–31%, exclusive of discrete items.

• Path to $3 billion in annual revenues in 2026 as new contracts normalize.

• Idle facilities (8, 6,646 beds) could generate up to $245 million incremental annualized revenue if activated.