The Mosaic Company (MOS) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 net income reached $411 million and adjusted EBITDA was $806 million, both significantly higher year-over-year, driven by strong performance in Brazil (Mosaic Fertilizantes), robust global potash demand, and improved phosphate and potash operations.

• Net sales for Q3 2025 were $3.45 billion, up 23% year-over-year, with all segments contributing to improved results and a $308 million unrealized gain on Ma'aden shares.

• Major investments in asset health and cost discipline initiatives led to improved U.S. phosphate production, three consecutive quarters of volume growth, and $150 million in savings, targeting $250 million by end of 2026.

• Strategic asset sales, including Patos de Minas and Taquari, generated $138 million in proceeds, reduced future liabilities, and supported capital reallocation toward higher-return opportunities.

• Mosaic Fertilizantes delivered adjusted EBITDA of $241 million, up 190% year-over-year, with strong co-products performance and effective credit management.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 net income was $411 million, up from $122 million year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA rose to $806 million from $448 million; net sales were $3.45 billion, up from $2.8 billion.

• Q3 2025 gross margin increased 33% year-over-year to $552.3 million, with a gross margin percentage of 16%.

• Diluted EPS for Q3 2025 was $1.29, up from $0.38 in Q3 2024; adjusted EPS was $1.04.

• Cash flow from operations was $229 million, impacted by a $400 million working capital increase due to inventory buildup and higher prices.

• Free cash flow was $(135) million, down from $72 million year-over-year, due to higher working capital and increased capex.

Outlook and guidance

• Q4 2025 phosphate sales volumes expected at 1.7–1.9 million tonnes, DAP prices $700–$730/tonne; potash sales volumes 2.3–2.6 million tonnes, MOP prices $270–$280/tonne.

• Full-year 2025 guidance: phosphate production 6.3–6.5 million tonnes, potash 9.1–9.4 million tonnes, Mosaic Fertilizantes sales 9.4–9.6 million tonnes, capex ~$1.3 billion.

• Q4 earnings anticipated to be higher than prior year, despite seasonally slower quarter; Mosaic Fertilizantes Q4 adjusted EBITDA expected at ~$100 million due to seasonality and credit constraints.

• Free cash flow conversion rate projected to rise to 25–30% in 2026 as working capital winds down and CapEx declines; operating cash flow to EBITDA conversion rate for 2025 expected around 50%, improving to 70–80% in 2026.

• Management expects liquidity to remain strong, with a $3.0 billion target liquidity buffer and continued access to credit facilities.