The Mosaic Company (MOS) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2024 net income was $169 million and adjusted EBITDA was $594 million; full-year 2024 net income was $175 million and adjusted EBITDA was $2.2 billion, with consolidated Q4 revenues of $2.816 billion and full-year revenues of $11.123 billion.

• Strategic progress included asset sales, redeployment of capital, and investment in core business growth and operational reliability, including the Ma'aden transaction with a $522 million gain and $1.5 billion investment value.

• Segment performance was mixed: Potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes saw year-over-year declines in adjusted EBITDA, while Phosphate improved.

• Brazil operations delivered strong underlying performance despite FX headwinds and market challenges, with cost improvements and margin resilience.

• Positive outlook for 2025, supported by cost discipline, operational improvements, and favorable market conditions.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 net income: $169 million; adjusted EBITDA: $594 million; Q4 revenues: $2.8 billion.

• Full-year 2024 revenues: $11.1 billion; net income: $175 million; adjusted EBITDA: $2.2 billion.

• Mosaic Fertilizantes Q4 adjusted EBITDA: $82 million, with underlying performance closer to $120 million after FX adjustments.

• SG&A for 2024: $497 million, flat year-over-year, with $30 million loss on receivables offset by insurance recovery expectations.

• Share count reduced by almost 20% over recent years; $506 million returned to shareholders in 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 phosphate production guidance: 7.2–7.6 million tonnes; potash: 8.7–9.1 million tonnes.

• Q1 2025 phosphate sales volumes expected at 1.5–1.7 million tonnes, DAP prices $595–$615/tonne; potash sales 2.0–2.2 million tonnes, MOP prices $200–$220/tonne.

• Cost reduction target of $150 million on track, with full run rate expected by end of 2025.

• 2025 capital expenditures projected at $1.2–$1.3 billion, expected to remain flat to address reliability.

• Market outlook for 2025 is positive, with improving grain and oilseed fundamentals and tight phosphate and potash markets.