Timken Company (TKR) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2024 sales were $1.07 billion, down 1.6% year-over-year, with organic revenue down 2.6% due to weak European demand and currency headwinds, partially offset by growth in the Americas, India, and acquisitions.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q4 was 16.6%, down from 17.9% last year; adjusted EPS was $1.16, down 15% year-over-year.

• Full-year 2024 revenue was $4.6 billion, down 4.1% year-over-year, with organic revenue down 5.8%, mainly due to wind energy and European weakness.

• Free cash flow for FY 2024 was $306 million, supporting net debt reduction of $288 million and strong shareholder returns.

• Recent acquisitions, including CGI and Lagersmit, contributed positively to growth and margins.

Financial highlights

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $178 million (16.6% margin), down from $195 million (17.9%) last year.

• Net income for Q4 was $71 million ($1.01 per diluted share, GAAP); adjusted EPS was $1.16.

• FY 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $845 million (18.5% margin), down from $940 million (19.7%) in 2023.

• Interest expense was $3 million lower year-over-year due to debt paydown; net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.0x.

• Returned $137 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks; 11th consecutive year of higher annual dividends.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 revenue expected to decline 1–4% year-over-year, with organic sales down about 1% at midpoint and currency a headwind of over 2%.

• Adjusted EPS for 2025 expected in the range of $5.30–$5.80; adjusted EBITDA margin around 18.5%.

• Free cash flow expected to exceed $400 million in 2025, with CapEx at ~3.5% of sales.

• $75 million in cost savings targeted for 2025 to offset inflation and cost increases.

• Guidance excludes potential impacts from new tariffs; mitigation plans in place.