TRATON (8TRA) Pre-Close Call Presentation summary

Market situation and recent trading

• EU truck market expected to grow modestly in 2026, with mid-point forecast at +2.5%.

• North America truck market also forecast at +2.5% mid-point, but retail sales down 13% YTD May.

• South America faces a challenging environment, with a mid-point forecast of -5% and truck registrations down 8% YTD May.

• China’s truck market grew 13% YTD April but is expected to cool in the second half.

• Inventory buildup at body builders in Europe is expected to unwind gradually.

Recent brand developments

• Scania increased production capacity in Europe and Brazil, with premium segment in China performing as expected.

• Early ramp-up of NEXT ERA truck slower due to diesel price trends; 2026 target remains 10,000 units.

• MAN saw strong order growth in Europe but weaker unit sales, especially in Germany.

• International benefits from EPA27-related price increases and US tariff refunds, boosting Q2 results.

• VWTB sold over 3,000 vehicles under the Move Brazil program.

Group perspective and outlook

• FY 2026 unit sales and sales revenue expected to range from -5% to +7% versus prior year.

• Adjusted operating return on sales (RoS) guidance set at 5.3% to 7.3% for the group.

• Net cash flow for operations projected between €900 million and €1,700 million.

• H2 expected to face higher input and energy costs, but net cash generation should improve seasonally.

• Outlook is sensitive to geopolitical risks, especially US trade policy and the Iran conflict.