TRATON (8TRA) Pre-close call presentation summary

Market situation and recent trading

• EU truck market expected to grow by 2.5% in 2026, with registrations up 5% YTD August but anticipated to slow towards year-end.

• North America truck market projected to grow 5% in 2026, with retail sales down 5% YTD August but strong order books for 2027.

• South America faces a challenging environment, with truck registrations down 2% YTD July and growth in other markets unlikely to offset Brazil's weakness.

• China truck registrations up 14% YTD June, driven by government BEV incentives, but growth expected to moderate in H2.

• Cost headwinds from higher input prices have been largely offset by price increases.

Recent brand developments

• Scania and MAN experienced seasonally weaker order intake and deliveries in July/August, with improvement seen in late September.

• Scania targets 10,000 units in 2026, split between Premium and NEXT ERA, leveraging a new China hub for Asia-Pacific exports.

• MAN faces Q3 margin pressure from lower volumes in Germany, partly offset by pricing; IAA orders support Q4 ramp-up.

• VWTB benefits from Move Brasil program, supporting Q3/Q4 sales, but order momentum expected to weaken as funding is allocated.

• International shows strong production ramp-up for H2, with positive volumes supporting Q3 margins and ongoing tariff discussions.

Group perspective and outlook

• 2026 group unit sales and sales revenue expected to range from -5% to +7% versus prior year.

• Adjusted operating return on sales guidance for 2026 reiterated at 6.3% to 7.3%.

• Input cost impacts confirmed in low triple-digit million euros, with higher energy costs adding a low double-digit million euro burden.

• Net cash inflow for operations expected to be concentrated in Q4 due to working capital seasonality and anticipated US tariff refunds.

• Financial services return on equity outlook maintained at 8.0% to 11.0%, with outlook subject to geopolitical and trade policy risks.