Vonovia (VNA) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 began with strong transaction market momentum, exceeding €2bn in volume, robust investor demand, and high housing demand, with operational performance solid across all segments.

• Organic rent growth reached 4.3% year-on-year, with near-full rent collection and a vacancy rate around 2.1–2.2%.

• Adjusted EBT and operating free cash flow both rose double digits year-on-year, and debt KPIs are improving.

• CEO succession announced for end of 2025, with Luka Mucic, bringing B2C and B2B expertise, set to take over.

• Share price declined 14.9% in Q1, influenced by macroeconomic volatility and interest rate expectations.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA Total rose 15% year-on-year to €699m, driven by non-rental segments; rental EBITDA was stable despite a reduction of ~9,000 units.

• Adjusted EBT increased 15% to €479m; profit for the period up 53.6% to €515.4m.

• Operating free cash flow grew 43% to €780m, with €150m in dividend payments to Apollo to occur in Q2.

• EPRA NTA per share increased 2.3% to €46.27.

• Recurring sales up 69–70% year-on-year, with margins at 25%.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 and 2028 guidance remain unchanged, with rental revenue expected at €3.3bn–€3.4bn for 2025 and €3.7bn–€3.8bn for 2028.

• Organic rent growth projected at ~4% for 2025 and above 4% for 2028.

• Adjusted EBITDA Total guidance for 2025 is €2.7bn–€2.8bn, with a mid-single-digit CAGR targeted through 2028.

• Estimated annual total return for 2025–2028 is ~13% based on market cap and ~9% based on NTA.

• Operating free cash flow expected moderately below previous year due to higher investment.