Vonovia (VNA) Q2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Balance sheet stabilization phase is largely completed, with €1.5bn disposals signed YTD and on track for a €3bn target in 2024.

• Portfolio valuation declined 1.4% in H1 2024, with the value decline trend slowing and signs of bottoming out.

• Rent growth momentum continues, with organic rent growth expected at 3.8–4.1% and strong reversionary potential.

• Guidance for 2024 raised to the upper end for organic rent growth, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBT.

• Market sentiment is improving, with rising transaction volumes and easing regulatory pressure.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA Total for H1 2024 was €1,266.5m, down 2.6% year-over-year.

• Adjusted EBT after minorities was €804.3m, down 8.9% year-over-year.

• Operating free cash flow rose 4.7% to €800.3m, driven by positive net working capital and recurring sales.

• EPRA NTA per share declined 5% to €44.48; fair value of the real estate portfolio declined 1.7% to €82.5bn.

• Rental revenue increased 2% to €1,650.4m, with organic rent growth of 3.8%.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 guidance updated to upper end of ranges for organic rent growth (3.8–4.1%), adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBT.

• Rental income forecast at ~€3.3bn; EPRA NTA per share expected to increase slightly barring further market changes.

• Value-add and Development segments expected to see pronounced EBITDA growth; Rental segment EBITDA to remain stable.

• Final guidance to be provided with nine-month results in November.

• Dividend capacity of ~€1bn maintained.