YPF (YPF) Investor Day 2025 summary

Strategic transformation and focus

• Shifted to a result-driven management model prioritizing profitability and shareholder value, moving away from political objectives.

• Transitioning to a pure shale company, targeting a $5/bbl lifting cost and focusing investments in Vaca Muerta.

• Exiting mature and non-core fields, reallocating capital to high-return shale assets and divesting from non-strategic businesses in Brazil and Chile.

• Implemented active portfolio management, including potential acquisitions and divestitures based on value creation.

• Emphasizing efficiency through real-time intelligence centers and Toyota-inspired well operations, achieving significant cost and cycle time reductions.

Growth outlook and financial guidance

• Five-year CapEx outlook of ~$5 billion annually, with 66% allocated to shale development.

• Targeting 500,000 bbl/d oil production by 2030, requiring drilling of 6,400 gross wells (4,000 net).

• EBITDA projected to reach $11 billion by 2029, with secure free cash flow from 2027 onward.

• Net leverage expected to temporarily rise to 2.0–2.1x due to mature field exits, then decline as EBITDA grows.

• Resilient to oil prices as low as $45/bbl, with break-even for Vaca Muerta at $24/bbl (development + lifting costs).

Infrastructure and export expansion

• Leading the Vaca Muerta Oil Pipeline South (VEMOS), Argentina’s largest oil infrastructure project, to enable 1.5 million bbl/d evacuation capacity.

• VEMOS expected operational by late 2026, ramping to full capacity in early 2027.

• Export revenues forecasted to reach $10 billion for the company and $40 billion for the sector by 2031.

• Three LNG projects underway, with first exports targeted for 2027 and strategic partnerships with Shell and other majors.

• LNG projects structured as project finance-driven, with YPF targeting 25–30% stakes to balance risk and capital needs.