YPF (YPF) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 marked a transformational year, driven by the 4x4 plan, focusing on shifting from mature conventional fields to expanding shale oil production, particularly in Vaca Muerta, and implementing operational efficiencies across all segments.

• Net revenues reached $19.3 billion in 2024, up 11% year-over-year, driven by local fuel price recovery, increased oil exports, and shale oil expansion, despite a significant devaluation and lower fuel demand.

• Significant progress was made in divesting mature fields, reallocating capital to core shale assets, and advancing major midstream projects like VMOS and Oldelval to boost export capacity.

• Record operational achievements included refinery utilization, shale oil production, and cost-saving initiatives, positioning the company as Argentina's largest oil exporter.

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 15% to $4.65 billion, mainly from local fuel price recovery, higher oil export revenues, and shale oil growth, partially offset by mature field losses and adverse weather in Patagonia.

Financial highlights

• Revenues reached $19.3 billion in 2024, up 11% year-over-year, mainly from higher fuel prices and oil exports.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $4.65 billion (+15% y/y); 4Q24 Adjusted EBITDA was $839 million (-39% q/q) due to lower gas sales and fuel inventory value.

• Net income was $2.39 billion in 2024, reversing a $1.28 billion loss in 2023, aided by positive income tax effects and lower impairment charges.

• Free cash flow was negative $760 million, impacted by mature field exits, deferred import payments, and weather disruptions.

• Net debt increased 9% to $7.43 billion, but net leverage improved to 1.6x.

Outlook and guidance

• Sustained shale oil production growth is expected in 2025, with a focus on Vaca Muerta and a $5 billion CapEx plan.

• Guidance for 2025 targets neutral free cash flow, with further details to be provided at the April Investor Day.

• Management is confident in delivering planned production ramp-ups and export capacity expansions, particularly through VMOS.

• VMOS oil export pipeline construction began in Jan-25, targeting 550 kbbl/d capacity by 2H27, with the largest initial shipping stake.

• Ongoing mature fields exit program, with multiple block transfers completed and more in negotiation.