YPF (YPF) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record-high adjusted EBITDA of $5.0 billion in 2025, the highest in a decade, despite a 15% drop in Brent prices and a 4% decline in revenues.

• Shale oil production surged 35% year-over-year, averaging 165,000 barrels/day in 2025 and peaking at over 200,000 barrels/day in December, now representing 72% of total oil output.

• Nearly completed exit from mature conventional fields, focusing on Tier 1 shale assets in Vaca Muerta.

• Advanced Argentina LNG project, formalizing partnerships and securing foundational agreements for up to 24 MTPA capacity.

• Completed major M&A transactions, acquiring world-class shale blocks and divesting non-core assets, including Profertil and Manantiales Behr.

Financial highlights

• Annual revenues reached $18.4 billion, down 4% year-over-year due to lower Brent prices, partially offset by higher shale production and record refinery utilization.

• Adjusted EBITDA grew 8% year-over-year to $5.0 billion; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $1.3 billion, up 53% internally.

• Free cash flow was negative $1.8 billion for 2025, mainly due to M&A activities and mature field exit costs.

• Net leverage ratio stood at 1.9x by year-end 2025, with net debt at $9.4 billion.

• CapEx for 2025 was $4.5 billion, with 72% allocated to unconventional assets.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 shale oil production target set at 215,000 barrels/day, with an exit rate of 250,000 barrels/day.

• Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 is $5.8–$6.2 billion, assuming Brent at $63/barrel.

• CapEx planned at $5.5–$5.8 billion for 2026, with 70% allocated to shale operations.

• Free cash flow expected to be neutral to slightly negative in 2026, with net leverage ratio declining to 1.6–1.7x.

• Long-term shale oil export contract signed for 32 kbbl/d until June 2033.