ArcelorMittal (MT) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2Q 2025 EBITDA reached $1.9bn ($135/tonne), with net income of $1.8bn, including $0.8bn in exceptionals; adjusted net income was $1.0bn.

• Strategic growth projects, including full Calvert ownership and India renewables ramp-up, drove record Liberia shipments and improved competitiveness.

• Net debt rose to $8.3bn, mainly due to M&A, with liquidity at $11.0bn; S&P upgraded credit rating to BBB.

• Share buybacks reduced fully diluted shares by 38% since September 2020, with $262m repurchased in 2025.

• Asset optimization and disciplined capital allocation enhanced per-share value and supported growth.

Financial highlights

• 2Q 2025 sales: $15.9bn, up 7.6% sequentially; 1H 2025 sales: $30.7bn, down 5.6% year-over-year due to lower steel prices.

• 2Q 2025 EBITDA: $1.86bn (up 17.7% sequentially; $135/tonne); 1H 2025 EBITDA: $3.44bn.

• 2Q 2025 net income: $1.8bn (EPS $2.35); adjusted net income: $1.0bn (adjusted EPS $1.32).

• Net cash from operations in 1H 2025: $1.1bn; free cash outflow: $0.8bn due to $1.9bn capex and $0.5bn shareholder returns.

• Net debt at June 30, 2025: $8.3bn (net debt/LTM EBITDA 1.2x); liquidity at $11.0bn.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 capex guidance unchanged at $4.5–$5.0bn, including $1.4–$1.5bn for strategic growth and $0.3–$0.4bn for decarbonization.

• World ex-China steel demand growth forecast revised to +1.5% to +2.5% for 2025; U.S. flat product demand expected to decline slightly, while Europe, Brazil, and India show stronger growth.

• 2H 2025 profitability to be supported by growth projects and Calvert consolidation, but faces headwinds from tariffs and seasonality.

• Free cash flow expected to be positive in 2025, aided by working capital release in 2H.

• $2.1bn EBITDA uplift targeted from growth projects and M&A, with $0.5bn incremental EBITDA expected in 2H 2025.