ArcelorMittal (MT) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered resilient operating results in 3Q 2024 with EBITDA of $1.6bn and operating income of $0.7bn, maintaining higher margins despite challenging market conditions.

• Completed a nine-month company-wide safety audit, implementing six key recommendations and maintaining a LTIF rate of 0.88x in 3Q 2024.

• Strategic execution continues with significant capital returns to shareholders, ongoing share buybacks, and investment in growth projects in Brazil, India, and Mexico.

• Generated $2.8bn investable cash flow over the past 12 months, with $1.5bn invested in strategic growth and $2.0bn returned to shareholders.

• Continued focus on decarbonization and renewables, with new solar and wind projects in Brazil and India.

Financial highlights

• 3Q 2024 EBITDA was $1,581m, with EBITDA per ton margin at $118, outperforming long-term averages despite lower steel volumes and prices.

• Adjusted EPS for 3Q 2024 was $0.63; basic EPS was $0.37.

• Net debt increased to $6.2bn at quarter-end, mainly due to the $1.0bn Vallourec stake acquisition and share buybacks.

• Share count reduced by 37% since September 2020, with ongoing buybacks totaling 1.5% in 3Q 2024 and 5.7% in 9M 2024.

• Dividends and buybacks in 2024 total $1.4bn, with an additional $200m dividend due in Q4, yielding nearly 8% of market capitalization.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2024 capex expected within $4.5bn–$5.0bn, with over 30% allocated to strategic growth projects.

• Strategic growth projects expected to add $1.8bn in new EBITDA, with $1bn anticipated over the next two years.

• Q4 outlook broadly similar to Q3, with higher volumes in Europe and iron ore shipments offset by lower spot prices in North America and seasonally lower volumes in Brazil.

• Working capital investment expected to reverse by year-end, supporting free cash flow.

• Decarbonization investment target of $10bn by 2030 remains unchanged, with more details expected by year-end.