ArcelorMittal (MT) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Safety remains a top priority, with a comprehensive audit completed and six recommendations being implemented across business units; LTIF rate was 0.88x in 3Q 2024.

• Delivered $5.4bn EBITDA and $1.9bn adjusted net income for 9M'24, maintaining higher margins despite challenging market conditions.

• Strategic execution continues, with $20bn investable cash flows since 2021 funding growth, M&A, and $12.6bn returned to shareholders.

• Three strategic growth projects commissioned in Brazil, India, and Mexico, all performing well and expected to add $1.8bn EBITDA over the next two years.

• Continued focus on decarbonization and renewables, with new solar and wind projects in Brazil and India.

Financial highlights

• 3Q 2024 EBITDA was $1,581m, with EBITDA per ton margin at $118, above long-term averages despite challenging markets.

• Share count reduced by 37% over four years, with ongoing buybacks and 1.5% repurchased in 3Q'24.

• Dividends and buybacks in 2024 total $1.4bn, with another $200m dividend due in Q4, yielding nearly 8% of market cap.

• Net debt increased to $6.2bn at quarter-end, mainly due to the $1.0bn Vallourec stake acquisition and share buybacks.

• Free cash flow for the quarter was $0.3bn, with $1.4bn net cash from operating activities.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2024 capex expected within $4.5bn–$5.0bn, with over 30% allocated to strategic growth projects.

• Strategic growth projects expected to add $1.8bn EBITDA, with $1bn over the next two years.

• Q4 expected to be broadly similar to Q3, with higher European volumes and iron ore shipments offset by lower North American prices and seasonally lower Brazil shipments.

• Decarbonization spending target of $10bn through 2030 remains unchanged, with more details expected by year-end.

• Positive free cash flow outlook for 2024 and beyond, supported by resilient operating results and strong balance sheet.